Boeing lifts 20-year industry demand forecast to $6 trillion

Ivan Schwartz
June 20, 2017

Okay will be one of the CFM International LEAP-1B-powered 737 MAX 10 launch customers, Boeing said.

Single-aisle aircraft like the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 will still rule the market, accounting for almost three-quarters of total sales, according to Boeing's forecast.

Boeing forecast that market could be worth $8.5 trillion over 20 years, growing at an average 4 percent a year.

A tally by Boeing shows more than 400 orders so far, while a separate tally for Airbus shows just over 100. The forecast differs little from last year's CMO, despite wide variations in economic growth, volatile exchange rates and increased geopolitical uncertainty.

"We are very pleased to welcome Okay as a launch customer of the 737 MAX 10 and a new customer of the 787-9 Dreamliner", said Ray Conner, Vice Chairman of The Boeing Company. The airplane will provide Ryanair with 197 seats, increasing revenue potential and providing airlines like Ryanair with up to 16 percent better fuel efficiency per seat than today's most efficient single-aisle airplanes.

"ACG is a proven fleet strategy solutions provider to airlines across the globe, and the 737 MAX 10 will bring even more benefits to their impressive portfolio", said Ihssane Mounir, senior vice president of Global Sales and Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

Boeing has once again raised its demand forecast for narrow-body planes and reduced it for medium and large wide-bodies.

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For the first time, it lumped these together with large two-engined jets such as the Boeing 777 and largest A350. Although Boeing's market outlook does not include the NMA, its entry into the market would not materially change its total forecast for 41,030 deliveries.

Boeing has long argued that the "very large" category is on its way out as airlines switch to smaller twinjets.

Both Airbus and Boeing have been forced to cut production rates of their biggest planes because of demand softness.

Boeing also expects to deliver only "a handful" of 747-8 passenger jets.

"If you take a look at the market since it started to come back after the downturn of 2008-2009, we've seen exceptionally strong traffic growth since 2010".

Boeing, the world's No. 1 plane maker, said Tuesday that passenger traffic is poised to grow 4.7% over the next two decades. I'm sorry, but you can't do it. Much air cargo nowadays goes in the belly of wide-body passenger planes rather than freighters.

Boeing predicted demand for 920 cargo planes, down 1 percent from its previous forecast.

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