Murphy: Pulling Out Of Iran Deal Makes North Korea Agreement Harder

Pauline Gross
October 13, 2017

Ahead, we break down the implications of that decision and what could come next.

What follows after de-certification of deal?

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has told US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson that Iran abides by all its commitments on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and emphasized that all co-authors of the document must abide by it, the Russian Foreign Ministry said after a telephone conversation of the two diplomats. Tillerson is expected to reach out to other members of Congress in coming days to brief them on the administration's intentions on the nuclear deal.

Trump has threatened to scrap the agreement, calling it the "worst deal ever".

What is Trump expected to say or do about the deal?

In anticipation of Trump's announcement this week, advocacy groups are beginning to mobilize in support of the agreement, and in opposition to Trump's reckless moves to undermine and dismantle it.

Trump's speech will include a list of allegations of malign Iranian behaviour, focusing on its ballistic missile programme, its role propping up the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad and its support for the Lebanese Shia militia, Hezbullah.

The reversal underscores deep concerns among lawmakers that Trump will inform Congress in the coming days that the landmark 2015 agreement with Iran is contrary to America's national security interests.

It gave Iran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program in a bid to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. But that's something no one on Capitol Hill seems inclined to do. Tom Cotton, R-Arkansas, are wary of decertification because it would constitute a "material breach" of the agreement and could destroy it. But Trump more recently has said he does not expect to certify Iran's compliance with the October deadline looming.

On the other hand, some argue decertification and the possibility of USA sanctions on Iran might win support from the Europeans.

The White House is seeking to extend or eliminate the expiration date for so-called "sunset" provisions, which limit the amount of uranium Iran is allowed to enrich.

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Former Obama administration officials who played central roles in brokering the Iran nuclear agreement briefed congressional Democrats later Wednesday on the merits of the worldwide accord. Murphy said he hoped that if the president does decertify the deal, that Congressional Republicans would refuse to put sanctions back on Iran.

Mogherini pointed to other global agreements that the U.S. has abandoned but the rest of the world has remained committed to, including the Paris Agreement on climate change. "We may have to array our forces to prepare for. calibrated strikes".

The other signatories to the JCPOA - the UK, France, Germany, Russia, China and Iran, have said it is not realistic to try to renegotiate its terms.

It's not clear whether America's European allies would go along with a renegotiation, either.

"There is no technical nor political space to renegotiate this deal", Federica Mogherini, the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, told PBS Wednesday.

What happens if Trump decertifies the deal?

Engel said the USA would lose any leverage it has with allies in the deal if it abandons the JCPOA.

Second, Trump could call for greater non-nuclear sanctions on Iran as it seeks to punish the regime without violating the deal.

After a meeting in September, Mogherini, who helped broker the 2015 pact, pointed out that all of the countries who signed the deal - including the United States - have found Iran is in compliance with the agreement.

But it could be hard to get both Iran and its ally, Russia, back to the table for a new round of talks.

She noted that the worldwide community, including the European Union and other USA allies, will continue to abide by the deal even if Trump chooses not to certify Iran's compliance, something which has been confirmed eight times by the global Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Other reports by GizPress

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