Oscar season has a way of turning otherwise reasonable people into amateur statisticians, astrologists, and armchair Hollywood prognosticators. We scrutinise guild awards like tea leaves, debate anonymous ballots as if decoding some ancient script, and pore over every campaign stop, hunting for the moment a frontrunner might slip or, just as thrillingly, the instant an underdog catches fire. It’s a ritual built on equal parts math and mythology, and for the 2025 Academy Awards, the script is particularly juicy: a dogfight between two wildly different films, each appealing to a different set of Academy instincts.
On one side, there’s Anora, Sean Baker’s micro-budget Palme d’Or winner about a Brooklyn stripper navigating an absurd collision of sex, power, and capitalism. It’s indie to its bones — raw, rough-around-the-edges, and deeply American. On the other, is Edward Berger’s Vatican thriller, Conclave — a rivetting battle of ideology and secrecy unfolding within the walls of the Sistine.
The two have divvied up the road to the Dolby Theatre in ways that make predicting a winner an act of masochism. Anora steamrolled through the Critics Choice Awards, the Directors Guild, the Producers Guild, and the Writers Guild — powerful signals, all. But the stately European pedigree of Conclavedominated the BAFTAs and, crucially, took home the SAG Ensemble prize, a bellwether of mainstream appeal. And then there’s that confounding preferential ballot, the Academy’s method of voting that has upended more than a few Oscar frontrunners in the past, with this year’s battle hinging on whichever film ends up more broadly liked rather than passionately adored. The PGA win suggests Anora has the momentum, but Conclave’s international-leaning support could swing the other way.
Meanwhile, as Anora and Conclave duke it out, lurking in the wings is The Brutalist, Brady Corbet’s brooding, post-war epic tracing the decades-spanning journey of a Holocaust survivor turned architect. It has ten nominations, including Best Director and Best Actor for Adrien Brody, who, 21 years after his history-making win for The Pianist, is in serious contention to repeat the feat. But standing in his way is Timothée Chalamet, embodying young Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown with an almost supernatural ease — singing, strumming, and shape-shifting his way into voters’ hearts. Brody has swept the season, but Chalamet’s SAG win signals a live-wire alternative. If he wins, he’ll rather poetically steal Brody’s own record as the youngest Best Actor in Oscar history.
In Best Actress, it’s a generational face-off tailor-made for awards season dramatics. Finally earning her first Oscar nomination at 62, veteran star Demi Moore has reinvented herself in spectacular fashion with The Substance — an audacious body-horror satire that turns the industry’s anxieties about ageing into a grotesque, unforgettable nightmare. Mikey Madison, meanwhile, has ridden a wave of Cannes momentum into her first nomination, her raw performance in Anora being hailed as something of a revelation. Does the Academy reward Moore’s decades-long resilience, or do they crown Madison as the future?
ALSO READ: Oscar Awards 2025 Nominations | 97th Academy Awards
Further down the ballot, there’s a clash of titans in the writing categories. Conclave has dominated Adapted Screenplay, its tightly wound adaptation of Robert Harris’s novel winning the BAFTA, Critics Choice, and the USC Scripter. But Nickel Boys, based on Colson Whitehead’s blistering Pulitzer Prize-winning novel, has strong support, especially after its Writers Guild win. In Original Screenplay, Anora, A Real Pain, and The Substance have all taken key precursors, making the race a three-way toss-up, though the odds tend to favour the Best Picture favourite in this case.
And then there’s the elephant in the room, Emilia Pérez— Jacques Audiard’s polarising, operatic cartel musical, which, for a moment, seemed poised to be this year’s Everything Everywhere All At Once. It roared out of Cannes with the Jury Prize and actress wins, rode that wave into an astonishing thirteen nominations, and then, controversy. Between a firestorm over star Karla Sofía Gascón’s Twitter history and questions about the film’s authenticity and fidelity to its Mexican setting, its once-certain dominance has been severely dented. Even so, with Zoe Saldaña a likely lock for Supporting Actress and “El Mal” still a major contender for song, it remains the season’s wild card.
With just days to go before the big night, the race is still frustratingly unpredictable, despite a series of conveniently self-inflicted events that have sabotaged many a campaign in true Conclave fashion. Will the Academy anoint Anora, crowning Sean Baker as the new indie king? Will Conclave sweep in as a more traditional alternative? Can Brody fend off Chalamet? And in a season now defined by generational divides — Moore vs. Madison, Brody vs. Chalamet, indie vs. prestige — one final question lingers: does the Academy want to celebrate the past, or embrace the future?
Here is our full list of predictions for the Oscars 2025:
Best Picture
A still from ‘Anora’
| Photo Credit:
Neon
Will Win: Anora
Could Win: Conclave
Should Win: Nickel Boys
Best Director
Best Director Oscar nominee Sean Baker attends the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences reception for the nominees of the 97th Oscars in Los Angeles, February 25, 2025
| Photo Credit:
MARIO ANZUONI
Will Win: Sean Baker (Anora)
Could Win: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
Should Win: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
Best Actress
Best Actress Oscar nominee Demi Moore attends the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences reception for the nominees of the 97th Oscars in Los Angeles, February 25, 2025
| Photo Credit:
MARIO ANZUONI
Will Win: Demi Moore (The Substance)
Could Win: Mikey Madison (Anora)
Should Win: Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
Best Actor
Best Actor Oscar nominee Adrien Brody attends the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences reception for the nominees of the 97th Oscars in Los Angeles, February 25, 2025
| Photo Credit:
MARIO ANZUONI
Will Win: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Could Win: Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
Should Win: Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
Best Supporting Actress
Best Actress in a Supporting Role nominee Zoe Saldana attends the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences reception for the nominees of the 97th Oscars in Los Angeles, February 25, 2025
| Photo Credit:
MARIO ANZUONI
Will Win: Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)
Could Win: Isabella Rosselini (Conclave)
Should Win: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin attends the 31st Screen Actors Guild Awards, in Los Angeles, California, February 23, 2025
| Photo Credit:
MIKE BLAKE
Will Win: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Could Win: Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
Should Win: Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
Best Original Screenplay
A still from ‘Anora’
| Photo Credit:
Neon
Will Win: Sean Baker (Anora)
Could Win: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)
Should Win: Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
Best Adapted Screenplay
A still from ‘Conclave’
| Photo Credit:
Focus Features
Will Win: Peter Straughan (Conclave)
Could Win: RaMell Ross, Jocelyn Barnes (Nickel Boys)
Should Win: RaMell Ross, Jocelyn Barnes (Nickel Boys)
Best International Feature Film
A still from ‘I’m Still Here’
| Photo Credit:
Sony Picture Classics
Will Win:I’m Still Here
Could Win:Emilia Perez
Should Win:The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Best Animated Feature Film
A still from ‘The Wild Robot’
| Photo Credit:
DreamWorks
Will Win:The Wild Robot
Could Win:Flow
Should Win:Flow
Best Cinematography
A still from ‘The Brutalist’
| Photo Credit:
A24
Will Win: Lol Crawley (The Brutalist)
Could Win: Jarin Blaschke (Nosferatu)
Should Win: Lol Crawley (The Brutalist)
Best Film Editing
A still from ‘Conclave’
| Photo Credit:
Focus Features
Will Win: Nick Emerson (Conclave)
Could Win: Sean Baker (Anora)
Should Win: David Jancso (The Brutalist)
Best Original Score
Will Win: Daniel Blumberg (The Brutalist)
Could Win: Volker Bertelmann (Conclave)
Should Win: Daniel Blumberg (The Brutalist)
Best Original Song
Will Win: “El Mal” by Clément Ducol, Camille Dalmais, and Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez)
Could Win: “The Journey” by Diane Warren (Six Triple Eight)
Should Win: “Like a Bird” by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada (Sing Sing)
Best Sound
A still from ‘Dune: Part Two’
| Photo Credit:
Warner Bros.
Will Win: Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill (Dune: Part Two)
Could Win: Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey and David Giammarco (A Complete Unknown)
Should Win: Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill (Dune: Part Two)
Best Production Design
A still from ‘Wicked’
| Photo Credit:
Universal Pictures
Will Win: Nathan Crowley, Lee Sandales (Wicked)
Could Win: Judy Becker, Patricia Cuccia (The Brutalist)
Should Win: Judy Becker, Patricia Cuccia (The Brutalist)
Best Costume Design
A still from ‘Wicked’
| Photo Credit:
Universal Pictures
Will Win: Paul Tazewell (Wicked)
Could Win: Linda Muir (Nosferatu)
Should Win: Lisy Christl (Conclave)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
A still from ‘The Substance’
| Photo Credit:
MUBI
Will Win: Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli (The Substance)
Could Win: Frances Hannon, Laura Blount and Sarah Nuth (Wicked)
Should Win: Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli (The Substance)
Best Visual Effects
A still from ‘Dune: Part Two’
| Photo Credit:
Warner Bros.
Will Win: Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer (Dune: Part Two)
Could Win: Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke (Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes)
Should Win: Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer (Dune: Part Two)
Best Documentary Feature
A still from ‘No Other Land’
| Photo Credit:
Antipode Films
Will Win:No Other Land
Could Win:Porcelain War
Should Win:No Other Land
Best Documentary Short Subject
A still from ‘The Only Girl in the Orchestra’
| Photo Credit:
Netflix
Will Win:The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Could Win:I Am Ready, Warden
Should Win:The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Best Live Action Short Film
A still from ‘A Lien’
| Photo Credit:
Vimeo/ Sam Cutler-Kreutz
Will Win:A Lien
Could Win:The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Should Win:A Lien
Best Animated Short Film
A still from ‘Yuck!’
| Photo Credit:
MUBI
Will Win:Yuck!
Could Win:Wander to Wonder
Should Win:In the Shadow of the Cypress
Published – February 27, 2025 04:57 pm IST
