This year’s gathering at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards ceremony had all the makings of a considerable last-minute shift in power. Conclave, Edward Berger’s political thriller, that had been picking up steam in recent weeks, snatched the night’s top honor — Best Ensemble — landing a sharp jab at Anora, the presumed Best Picture heavyweight. Meanwhile, Demi Moore (The Substance), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez), and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) tightened their grip on the acting races, leaving little room for surprises; while Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) dealt a surprise blow to Oscar frontrunner Adrien Brody’s lead, copping a historic first win. But in an Oscar season as volatile as this one, “if there was only certainty and no doubt, there would be no mystery”. And that would be as boring an Oscar night as they come.
So, what does this all mean for the Oscars? Well, in some ways, everything — and in others, absolutely nothing.
The tightest and easiest acting races
Demi Moore’s SAG win for The Substance seemingly solidifies her as the Best Actress frontrunner, but Mikey Madison (Anora) isn’t out of the race just yet. Moore has been on a winning streak, picking up both the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Awards, but Madison’s BAFTA victory suggests the Academy might be more split than expected.
If history is any guide, Anora’s stumble at the SAG Awards might be more of an omen than just a bruised ego, and Madison’s defeat complicates her Oscar trajectory. Typically, in a tight acting race, the performer in the stronger film gets the upper hand. Last year, Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) won SAG but watched Emma Stone (Poor Things) waltz away with the Oscar. A year before that, Brendan Fraser (The Whale) and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) converted their SAG wins into Oscar gold, while Austin Butler (Elvis) and Cate Blanchett (Tár) were left out in the cold, despite headlining more widely celebrated films.
If Anora had locked in Best Ensemble at SAG, Madison might have had a clearer path, but with The Substance all but guaranteed a win in hair and makeup alongside Moore’s acting triumph, the Academy may be primed to lean the same way. Still, Anora remains a formidable force, with Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay seemingly within reach. Moore may be the frontrunner, but Madison isn’t out of the fight just yet.
Best Actor, however, remains a true toss-up. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) took home the SAG Award, but Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) has been sweeping everywhere else, winning the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and Critics’ Choice Award. Chalamet’s performance as Bob Dylan is the kind of transformative biopic role that the Academy tends to reward, but Brody’s momentum, as well as his previous Oscar win for The Pianist, could make him the safer bet. The tiebreaker? Potential controversy. The Brutalist has faced scrutiny over its use of AI-assisted accents, and while that may not be enough to derail Brody’s chances entirely, it does add another layer of unpredictability to the mix.
Meanwhile, Kieran Culkin and Zoe Saldaña are running virtually unopposed in their supporting categories. Culkin, in particular, has swept every major precursor award, making him one of the night’s safest bets. Saldaña’s win is equally significant, helping Emilia Pérez maintain its presence in the Oscar conversation despite the recent controversy surrounding its lead actress, Karla Sofía Gascón.
‘Anora’ vs ‘Conclave’: A true Best Picture race?
For months, Anora had been operating like a heavyweight champ on a victory lap. It had already taken home top honors from the Directors Guild, the Producers Guild, and the Writers Guild — conventionally, a lethal combination in the Best Picture race. Earlier this weekend it even picked up wins at the Indie Spirit Awards. But then, Conclave landed a well-timed punch at the BAFTAs and followed it up with the SAG Ensemble win, injecting a sense of uncertainty into what was supposed to be a predictable finale.
Historically, the SAG Ensemble award is a shaky predictor of Best Picture. Only 15 of the past 29 winners have gone on to claim Oscar gold. However, the last time a film won Best Picture after losing the SAG Ensemble race while sweeping PGA, DGA, and WGA was The Shape of Water in 2018. That bodes well for Anora. But Conclave is starting to resemble Argo, or even Green Book, which, after being snubbed for a Best Director nomination, rebounded with a strong late-game push to claim Best Picture.
While Conclave’s chances at a Best Picture upset remain uncertain, its path to a Best Adapted Screenplay victory looks far more secure. The film has already claimed major screenplay awards at the BAFTAs and Golden Globes, and with Dune: Part Two’s absence from the category this year, it’s one of the few places where Conclave can land a definitive win.
Still, one crucial fact could undermine Conclave’s chances: Oscar voting had already closed before the SAG Awards were handed out. If Conclave was going to shake up the race, it needed that moment of momentum before ballots were due. The odds remain in Anora’s favor, but in a year this competitive, anything could happen.
The final verdict
As it stands, Anora remains the frontrunner, but the Conclave camp has every reason to hold out hope. The acting races are mostly locked in, with Moore, Saldaña, and Culkin expected to triumph, while Best Actor could come down to the Academy’s tolerance for risk. If Conclave were to win Best Picture, it would be a genuine upset, but not an unprecedented one. Hollywood loves a redemption arc and if there’s one thing Conclave has proven, it’s that nothing is set in stone until that final envelope is opened.
The Oscars stream live on March 3
Published – February 24, 2025 12:47 pm IST
